eebamxela wrote:Is my logic sound? If a middle of the road person saw this what would they say to it? Help me hone my thought processes here.
Carneades wrote:"Either the Christian God exists or He doesn't so I assign a 50% probability to each possibility. But in the event that the Christian God doesn't exist, atheism isn't the only possible winner. The Hindu gods could be the real rulers of the universe, or the Greek gods, or the Mormon God, etc. So atheism ends up as one infinitesimally thin slice of the pie while the Christian God still has half the pie. Obviously any sensible person can see that their best chance of being right is to bet on the Christian God."
A Muslim could make the same sort of argument to support his religion, as could a Hindu, a Jew, a wiccan, etc. So your approach doesn't really help us to determine the likelihood of any particular position being true.
Sans_Deity wrote:The wager is basically a cost/benefit analysis that presumes that one should believe in a god - no matter how unlikely its existence is - because the risk of not believing makes disbelief too risk (or because the reward for believing makes belief the best choice)..
Sans_Deity wrote:Someone arguing Pascal's wager might try to claim that a .0001% chance at eternal bliss is enough to justify belief. Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and certifiable nutjob, made a similar argument last week.
bugsoup wrote:Russell recently discussed the long list of assumptions one must make to continue belief in a god. What if this idea was applied to the mathematical proof? For instance, suppose for every assumption there exists two possibilities. Namely true or false.
1) an omnipotent god
2) an omnibenevolent god
3) an omniscient god
Granted these chances might not actually be 50/50 but I'm being generous and simplistic to start with. Now for every set of assumptions you make, you must compound the value of all chances. So, if you want to claim 1 and 2 are true, then your overall chance of that particular god existing is 25%. (50% of 50%). Now, if any one of your assumptions contradict another, you immediately have a 0% chance. If you picked 1, 2, and 3, then you do have a 0% chance.
Continue this "compound likelihood" calculation for every assumption. If you think your god wants us to be happy and be 1 and 2, then you are 12.5% likely to be correct. Note that since the actual existence isn't provable, this isn't included in the 50/50 list. This calculation is used to determine how likely it is that your particular version of god is true. Any time one of your assumptions can be verified, it's probability becomes 100% and the conversely false option is 0%.
What do you guys think of this?
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